STATISTICAL MODELS FOR FORECASTING AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND MONTHLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNT IN PERM

Comparative Study Among Different Time Series Models for Monthly Rainfall Forecasting in Shiraz Synoptic Station, Iran

In this research, monthly rainfall of Shiraz synoptic station from March 1971 to February 2016 was studied using different time series models by ITSM Software. Results showed that the ARMA (1,12) model based on Hannan-Rissanen method was the best model which fitted to the data. Then, to assess the verification and accuracy of the model, the monthly rainfall for 60 months (from March 2011 to Feb...

HHT Analysis of the Global Average Monthly precipitation Data

This paper uses the Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) method to make time–frequency diagnostic analyses of four monthly time series of the global precipitation: MERG (1900– 2008), REOF (1900–2008), GPCP (1979–2009), and CMAP (1979–2009). All these data are the global land and ocean average of precipitation anomalies with respect to the mean of the entire data period. The MERG and REOF are spectral ...

Performance evaluation of artificial neural networks in statistical downscaling of monthly precipitation (Case study: Minab watershed)

Monthly rainfall Forecasting using genetic programming and support vector machine

Rainfall and runoff estimation play a fundamental and effective role in the management and proper operation of the watershed, dams and reservoirs management, minimizing the damage caused by floods and droughts, and water resources management. The optimal performance of intelligent models has increased their use to predict various hydrological phenomena. Therefore, in this study, two intelligent...

Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in Iran

The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive (PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins (SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates for the forecasting model. It was shown that the PAR (q) model could not be considered as an appropri...